3.7 million lose unemployment advantages prematurely if the states withdraw

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty Images

According to a CNBC analysis of the Department of Labor data, around 3.7 million Americans will be affected by the state’s early withdrawal from federal unemployment programs.

Last month, 25 states announced plans to end the pandemic-era benefits before they formally expire on September 6. Some states will stop aid on June 12th.

Maryland announced on Tuesday its withdrawal effective July 3rd. The other 24 states are Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas , Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Affected workers are ready to lose a $ 300 weekly unemployment benefit supplement. Most states also completely suspend benefits for the self-employed, gig workers, and the long-term unemployed.

The states – all run by Republican governors – claim that improved unemployment benefits encourage laid-off workers to stay home instead of looking for work.

This dynamic has made it difficult for companies to fill record jobs, they said.

“While these state programs have provided important temporary relief, good vaccines and jobs are now in place,” Maryland Governor Larry Hogan said Tuesday. “And we have a critical problem where companies across our state are trying to hire more people, but many are facing severe labor shortages.”

The programs in question have existed since the legislature passed the CARES law in March 2020. The American rescue plan extended them through Labor Day.

Economists believe that improved unemployment benefits may play at least a small part in the challenges of setting businesses. However, the extent cannot be quantified and other factors are likely to be more significant, they said.

The cuts are “linked to politics, not the economy,” according to a research report by JPMorgan released last week.

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All but two Republican-led states – Massachusetts and Vermont – have announced that they will end federally funded benefits early. (Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker recently pledged to uphold the benefits.)

CNBC’s analysis of affected workers is likely to be a slight undercount as the Department of Labor does not report data for all recipients in Florida and Georgia.

According to an estimate by Andrew Stettner, Senior Fellow of the progressive think tank The Century Foundation, the number would be about 3.9 million people if all recipients in these states were included.

Other factors

State decisions to withdraw are largely made after April’s job report fell short of expectations. The number of employees rose by 266,000, far less than the forecast 1 million. Meanwhile, the number of vacancies hit a record in the previous month.

“The disappointing job market report shows that paying people who don’t work is dampening a stronger job market,” said Neil Bradley, chief policy officer of the US Chamber of Commerce.

However, this criticism overlooks a number of other temporary, pandemic-related factors that economists and workers’ representatives say are also contributing to labor market dynamics.

8 million fewer jobs remain than before the pandemic, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

It’s like a classic example of blaming the victim. It’s a crazy political response to a situation that is obviously much more complex.

Andrew Stettner

Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation

According to economists, childcare can be a barrier for working parents in areas where schools and daycare centers have not fully reopened. Many older workers have retired early and may not return to the labor market.

Due to pandemic health risks, people can still be cautious about returning to work, especially in personal jobs. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows 52% of adults in the United States are fully vaccinated. (The proportion is lower in working-age adults, however – the data is skewed upwards by seniors who may no longer be gainfully employed but who were vaccinated at higher vaccination rates.)

According to an analysis released Monday by Indeed, a job website, companies are more likely to classify new job openings as “urgent” or “immediate” (possible signs of difficulty finding a job) when the job is done in person rather than from the Distant took place.

“This is bad news,” said Stettner about the withdrawal of the states. “It’s like a classic example of blaming the victim.

“It’s a crazy political response to a situation that is obviously much more complex,” he added.

Critics also argue that the benefit cut could reduce demand for goods and services and potentially undercut the need for new hires.

According to an analysis released Tuesday by Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va., Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, local economies would lose more than $ 12 billion to states’ early withdrawal.

Correction: Maryland announced that it would end extended unemployment benefits on Tuesday. In an earlier version, the day was incorrectly specified in a reference.

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